Now what?

I think now is as good of a time as any to take a look ahead at the Sox potential 2006 roster. Yes, 2005 is going to be a tough act to follow. KW will be a busy man again this winter.

In 2005, the Sox payroll stood at a modest $75 million - or 13th in the majors. Very middle of the road. If you haven't seen this table, it illustates the balance of power in MLB, and what the Sox are up against.

So what will the Sox payroll be in 2006? Let's look back a few years at the total payroll and percentage of increase from year-to-year (numbers prior to 2003 are kinda out of wack, so I'm only going to go back 2 years):

2003 ($51m) to 2004 ($65m) +27%
2004 ($65m) to 2005 ($75m) +15%

So...
2005 ($75m) to 2006 ($88m estimate) +17%

The 2005 post season appearance was sure to add some dollars to the Sox coffers for 2006. And expect a modest jump in season tickets, from 11,000 seats to probably about 15,000. A massive increase in merchandise sales will help the cause as well. So, based on that and the 17% increase, that's how I came up with the estimate that the Sox payroll should be about $88 million.

Great.

Now, let's look at the roster and the players who have a guaranteed portion of that $88 million:

Garcia $10m
Contreras $8 m
Thome $8 m
Buehrle $7.75 m
Dye $5 m
Hernandez $4.5 m
Garland $4 m (arbitration estimate)
Thomas $3.5 m (buyout)
Uribe $3.15 m
Hermanson $3m
AJ $3 m (arbitration estimate)
Iguchi $2.4 m
Marte $2.25 m
sPod $1.9 m
Crede $1.5 m (arbitration estimate)
Politte $1.2 m
Widger $650k
Ozuna $500k
Everett $500 K (buyout)
Harris $500 k (arbitration estimate)
Cotts $400K
Borchard $400k
Gload $400k
Jenks $330k
Anderson $330k
McCarthy $330 k

Total - about $73 million

Two guys I don't think the Sox will bring back:
Timo $1.20m (arbitration estimate)
Vizcaino $1.5 m (arbitration estimate)

Which leaves $15 m in 2006 to sign Konerko (probably part of a 3-4 year package worth about $45-65m guaranteed). Plenty!

Total 2006 Sox payroll estimate -
$88 million

Not an exact science, but the best I could do...