House of cards

oops

I've meant to write more during the break, but work has just been sucking all the life out of me.

Plenty of other bloggers out there have in-depth, analytical coverage of individual Sox player performances for the first half of the season. I'm going to take a different angle; a lot of fans are waiting for the Sox to collaspe, for the house of cards to fall down, for the dog days of August to lead to a September swoon... Well, I've got some bad news for those naysayers...

Before the All-Star break, the Sox have played 86 games. Which means they have 76 to go. If they play .500 ball the rest of the way, they'll finish 95-67, which is probably good enough to win the AL Central. Maybe. The question is, how tough are the remaining 76 games (vs the first 86)?

Pre-All Star Break, I show the Sox played 39 tough games (wins-losses):
Minnesota - 5 (4-1)
Oakland - 9 (2-7)
Baltimore - 4 (2-2)
Texas - 5 (2-3)
Cub - 6 (3-3)
LA Angels - 7 (4-3)
San Diego (yes, San Diego - 3 (2-1)
Total - 39 (19-20)

Take out the 9 unexplainable Oakland games, and they're 17-13.

After the All Star break, I show 40 such games:
Minnesota - 13 (6 home/7 road)
Baltimore - 4 (R)
Texas - 4 (R)
LA Angels - 3 (H)
Toronto - 3 (H)
Yankees - 6 (3/3)
Boston - 7 (4/3)
(19 home-21 road)

I think the most important point of this illustration, is the SOX MUST WIN MOST OF THE REMAINING GAMES AGAINST THE TWINS.

Of the 36 games not shown above, 9 are against the KC Royals, 6 vs Seattle, 11 against Detroit, and 10 against Cleveland.

So if the Sox go, say, 18-22 in the tough games, they need only to go 20-16 in the less difficult ones. I think this an achievable goal... Guess we'll find out. It should be a wild wild ride...