Friday, March 25, 2005

AL Central preview

OK, as promised, here it is, finally...

AL Central Preview

Predictions:
1. Chicago

2. Minnesota
3. Cleveland
4. Detroit
5. Kansas City

Chicago White Sox
C: AJ Pierzynski
1B: Paul Konerko
2B: Tadahito Iguchi
3B: Joe Crede
SS: Juan Uribe
LF: Aaron Rowand
CF: Scott Podsednik
RF: Jermaine Dye
DH: Frank Thomas/Carl Everett
Rotation: Mark Buehrle (L), Freddy Garcia (R), Orlando Hernandez (R) , Jose Contreras (R), Jon Garland (R),
Bullpen: Shingo Takatsu, Dustin Hermanson (R), Damaso Marte (L), Luis Vizcaino (R), Cliff Politte (R), Neal Cotts (L), Jon Adkins (R)
Bench: WIllie Harris (IF), Timo Perez (OF), Ross Gload (1B-OF), Wilson Valdez (IF), Ben Davis (C), Jamie Burke (C, 3B), Pablo Ozuna (IF)

On paper, the Sox appear to be a much better team in 2005 than they were last season. The most notable improvement, appears to be the starting pitching. While fans on the south side would've probably preferred that GM Kenny Williams obtain a top of the line #1 starter, or a bona fide #3, like Matt Clement, the acquisition of Orlando "EL Duque" Hernandez could pay big dividends. Both Buehrle and Garcia have the potential to win 18+ games, and if El Duque and Contreas can play off each other and not lose control, the Sox have a solid front 4. Even Jon Garland is good for another 15-15 year, solid for a #5.

The already strong bullpen also looks improved, with the addition of both Hermanson and Vizquel. The middle relief goes deep, though they may have to look to the minors should one of the 5 starters go down with a serious injury. Hermanson can fill in, but hopefully they won't look to Brandon McCarthy just yet. Marte will continue to be the primary set up man for the wildly popular Takatsu.

The departure of Magglio Ordonez, Jose Valentin and Carlos Lee (and the Alomars) may suggest a loss of power, and therefore runs, but the players added represent a more balanced approached to winning games. No more will the Sox win 13-4, or lose 10-6. Look for closer games. Key additions include new speedy leadoff hitter Scott Podsednik, who's BA and OBP may be the keys to the Sox entire season, catcher AJ Pierzynski, who will have to put a bad year in SF behind him, and emerge as a leader on the Sox, and control the pitcers, in his return to the AL central, and 2B Iguchi, a question mark from Japan. The Sox also added Jermaine Dye, who hits in steaks, but has some power, some speed and a great arm. That said, the Sox, who hit a franchise record HRs last season and led the AL, still have a lot of power returning, namely Rowand and Konerko, but the others can hit well too. Look for Frank Thomas to come back strong as he hits the home stretch in his bid for the Hall of Fame.

The Sox are strong off the bench, and the postion players go deep. KW took some big gambles in the off-season. It remains to be seen if they will be the team to beat in the AL. Like the Twins and the Indians, if the Sox stay healthy, they will certainly contend in the AL Central again this season.

Minnesota Twins
C: Joe Mauer
1B: Justin Morneau
2B: Luis Rivas
3B: Mike Cuddyer
SS: Jason Bartlett
LF: Lew Ford
CF: Torii Hunter
RF: Jacque Jones
DH: Shannon Stewart
Rotation: Johan Santana(L), Brad Radke (R), Carlos Silva (R), Kyle Lohse (R), Joe Mays(R)
Bullpen: Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon (R), Jesse Crain (R), JC Romero (L), Grant Balfour (R), Terry Mulholland (L), CJ Nitkowski (L)
Bench: Mike Redmond (C), Juan Castro (IF), Mike Restovich (OF), Nick Punto (IF), Matt LeCroy

Do the Twins have what it takes to win this "weak" division...again? Like last year, they have a lot of young, talented players. The starting pitching is their strength, and they key difference from 2004 is that this year these guys have more experience under their belts. Rincon and Nathan are great closers, but beyond those two, there is not much depth out of the pen. The Twins pitching could be unhittable, but will they put up the runs? The offensive starters need to stay healthy, and someone - Hunter, Stewart or Mauer - must come forward and really hit. There is not much depth overall here, so an injury or two, some bad luck and bad steaks could sink Minnesota for the first time in years.

Cleveland Indians
C: Victor Martinez
1B: Ben Broussard
2B: Ronnie Belliard
3B: Aaron Boone
SS: Jhonny Peralta
LF: Casey Blake
CF: Coco Crisp
RF: Juan Gonzales
DH: Travis Hafner
Rotation: CC Sabathia (L), Kevin Millwood (R), Jake Westbrook (R), Cliff Lee (L), Scott Elarton (R)
Bullpen: Bob Wickman, David Riske (R), Scott Sauerbeck (L), Arthur Rhodes (L), Jason Davis (R), Rafael Betancourt (R), Bob Howry (R), Matt Miller (R), Kaz Tadano (R), Paul Shuey (R)
Bench: Jose Hernandez (IF), Josh Bard (C), Mike Kinkade (UT), Jeff Liefer (OF), Alex Cora (IF)


The Tribe has some question marks, but have a good shot to improve on their strong 3rd place finish last year. The starting pitching is promising, but not very deep. The offense, on the other hand is very deep and looks potentially potent. Health and consistency will be the keys to Cleveland's season. Coco Crisp has the opportunity to shine his way to superstardom this year, and CC Sabathia, Bob Wickman, Juan Gonzales and Travis Hafner must be at their best for the full haul. They'll score a lot of runs and if the pitching holds up, the Tribe have a more than a good shot at the top spot in the AL Central and beyond.

Detroit Tigers
C: Ivan Rodriguez
1B: Carlos Pena
2B: Omar Infante
3B: Brandon Inge
SS: Carlos Guillen
LF: Rondell White
CF: Craig Monroe
RF: Magglio Ordonez
DH: Dmitri Young
Rotation: Mike Maroth (L), Jeremy Bonderman (R), Jason Johnson (R), Nate Robertson (L), Wil Ledezma(R)
Bullpen: Troy Percival, Ugueth Urbina (R), Kyle Farnsworth (R), Jamie Walker (L), Fernando Rodney (R), Franklyn German (R)
Bench: Bobby Higginson (OF), Ramon Martinez (IF), Vance Wilson (C), Marcus Thames (OF), Nook Logan (OF)

What a difference a year makes. The Tigers bounced back nicely in 2004 after a dismal 2003. This team has a lot of hitting, some good power and some notable speed. The question mark is the pitching. The pitchers are mostly still young and will be prone to mistakes. But if Detroit puts enough runs up on the board, it might not matter. Make no mistake, the Tigers may content in 2005, there is a lot of talent and balance here, but are likely just a year away in this competitive division. Look for a year of more extreme highs and lows that will place them right around the .500 mark.

Kansas City Royals
C: John Buck
1B: Mike Sweeney
2B: Tony Graffinino
3B: Mark Teahen
SS: Angel Berroa
LF: Terrence Long/Eli Marrero
CF: David DeJesus
RF: Aaron Guiel
DH: Ken Harvey/Calvin Pickering
Rotation: Zack Greinke (R), Jose Lima (R), Brian Anderson (L), Runelvys Hernandez(R), Denny Bautista (R)
Bullpen: Jeremy Affeldt, Scott Sullivan (R), Nate Field (R), Jaime Cerda (L), Mike MacDougal (R), Justin Huisman(R), Kyle Snyder(R), Andy Sisco (L), Mike Wood (R)
Bench: Alberto Castillo (C), Denny Hocking (UT)

After a surprsing run at the AL Central title in 2003, in 2004 KC was injury prone and inconsistent, and finished a distant last place. Pena is a good manager - unconventional in some ways and likes to take chances. Like the Twins, the Royals have a lot of young talent - the Royals should be more fun to watch in 2005 than they were in 2004. Unlike the Twins, they are still a few years away from contending. Also unlike the Twins, Pena doesn't seem to focus on fundamentals. And already this spring they have a lot of injuries. Some of the young pitchers should be strong, show their stuff, and keep the Royals in most games. But offense is a big weakness. Without a lot of luck, and an unlikely burst of power, look for another year near the bottom for KC.

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